On Attendance
Friday, October 17th, 2008Every Stanford fan I know practically had an aneurysm when they heard Jim Harbaugh’s critical comments about fan support. We know that Jim Harbaugh will someday leave Stanford, and by someday we don’t mean in Joe Paterno years. No, it will likely be sooner rather than later. But it would be terrible to lose Harbaugh because of something within our control, i.e. attendance. If a Notre Dame or a USC or an Alabama (hypotheticals all, of course) happened to come calling, then whatever. I could deal with that. But I’d hate it to be because of something that seems to be within our control. Particularly when it would seem that the old verities about Stanford football have been swept away so dramatically and so quickly by Jim Harbaugh’s regime: contrary to common belief, Stanford football can play tough, Stanford football can recruit well, Stanford football can finish close games. So I decided to undertake a study of Stanford football’s attendance, to see whether Stanford football does, in fact, have a problem when it comes to fan support. Though the raw attendance can’t tell us why these statistics are the way they are-they can’t tell us if we happen to have Cal and Notre Dame scheduled the same year; they can’t tell us about the economy-they can give us a small clue about the state of Stanford football fan support. I’ve decided to start with 2006, the first year of new Stanford Stadium. If anyone can find data prior to 2006, I’d be grateful. (Source is cnnsi.com. The data are available if you e-mail me at datahir AT stanford DOT edu)

First, the title: it refers to the long-held Western belief that “All swans are white.” This was a belief given up in a second once Australia was discovered and a black swan sighted. What the experts had counted upon was untrue and it unsettled ornithology. That anecdote is the whole point of the book: you cannot predict anything with any great degree of accuracy.